Strategies to Beat Inflation

Beating inflation is critical to make savings last longer. The spreadsheet below tabulates how much money can be withdrawn (inflation adjusted) annually from a representative investment of $1,000,000 at different levels of after-tax returns assuming a withdrawal period of 60 years starting from the current year- 60-years withdrawal period defines a family in the 40’s yearning for financial independence as early as possible:


After-tax Return Percentage on Your Investments (Projected/Assumed)034681012
Safe Withdrawal Amounts at 3% inflation for 60-year time horizon$6,000$17,000$22,000$34,000$49,000$65,000$81,000
Safe Withdrawal Amounts at 5% inflation for 60-year time horizon$3,000$9,000$12,000$22,000$34,000$48,000$64,000
Safe Withdrawal Amounts at 11% inflation for 60-year time horizon$0$1,000$1,000$3,000$7,000$13,000$21,000


The highlighted figures indicate that even at higher levels of inflation, 2% is a good withdrawal rate, provided the investment beats inflation on an after-tax basis by at-least one percentage point - the highlighted amounts in Red (all above 2% of investment) are what can be withdrawn safely, if your investments beat inflation by exactly 1%. If your after-tax returns are below the inflation rate, the amount that can be withdrawn goes down progressively (amounts to the left of the highlighted figures).

US Stocks have historically outpaced inflation by a much-wider margin over prolonged time frames. This out-performance is correlated to the actual GDP growth rate over the years and should continue moving forward conditional to US being able to grow its GDP. An alternative strategy is investing in a global basket of securities from a representative list of countries that are projected to grow their GDP in the upcoming years. Minor asset allocation adjustments every 5-10 years based on the countries expected to grow GDP highest is a simple house keeping task. It is to be stressed that the consistent return associated with stock investments hold true only over extended periods of time.

A more cautious strategy that GUARANTEES moderate levels of inflation out-performance is the inflation-protected securities. In the US, the Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and series-I savings bonds are examples of such instruments. The caveats that need to be analyzed with such securities are:
  • The inflation index such securities are pegged against. ie, if the index doesn’t accurately reflect the overall inflation rate, the guarantee of beating inflation may not provide the expected real return, and
  • Tax implications – The tax effects for TIPS in the US makes it less desirable under certain situations. Specifically, the income from TIPS and the inflation adjustment are both taxable. The series-I savings bonds fare a little better in this regard as taxes are due only upon cashing them.

Related Posts:
  1. Exiting the Rat Race - Definition.
  2. Rat Race Exit Strategies
  3. Passive Income - Part 1 - Network Marketing.
  4. Passive Income - Part 2 - Royalties
  5. Passive Income - Part 3 - Rental Income
  6. Passive Income - Part 4 - Dividends.
  7. Passive Income - Part 5 - Pension Plans
  8. Passive Income - Part 6 - Employer Plans
  9. Strategies to Beat Inflation.
  10. Strategies to Reduce Expenses.
  11. Frugal Living - A Definition to go by
Last Updated: 06/2011.






    2 comments :

    Prestito said...

    The base of inflation may be shortfall of money in the market. Hope if a country has a good saving plan than such country has to face less during the situation of inflation.

    Carte di credito prepagate said...

    Hi, the idea of inflation protected securities are great. Hope it is the best source to invest money in it at least we get security during the period of inflation.

    Labels

    401k ( 15 ) Abad Turtle Beach ( 1 ) Abrams Capital Management ( 5 ) Acoustic Electric Guitars ( 1 ) Acoustic Guitars ( 1 ) ACT ( 1 ) Activist ( 4 ) Address Change ( 2 ) Advanced Placement ( 4 ) air asia ( 2 ) airlines ( 2 ) Akre Capital Management ( 18 ) Alex Roepers ( 5 ) AP ( 4 ) apartments ( 2 ) Appaloosa ( 15 ) ARIUS ( 1 ) Arlington Value Capital ( 3 ) Atlantic Investment Management ( 5 ) Ayemenem ( 1 ) Bangalore ( 3 ) Bangkok ( 2 ) Bannerghatta National Park ( 1 ) barbuda ( 2 ) Battery Park ( 1 ) Baupost ( 2 ) Baupost Group ( 17 ) bay area ( 2 ) BDCs ( 3 ) Benjamin Graham ( 2 ) Benjamin Graham Model ( 2 ) Berijam Lake ( 2 ) Berkshire Hathaway ( 35 ) best sites ( 9 ) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation ( 41 ) Bill Ackman ( 19 ) Bill Gates ( 40 ) Blue Ridge Capital ( 16 ) Blum Capital Partners ( 12 ) books ( 4 ) Boone Pickens ( 2 ) BP Capital Management ( 2 ) Brave Warrior ( 3 ) Brave Warrior Advisors ( 16 ) british honduras ( 2 ) Bruce Berkowitz ( 19 ) Bruce Fund ( 38 ) Camcorders ( 3 ) canada ( 4 ) cancun ( 3 ) CANROYs ( 7 ) Cantillon ( 12 ) carl icahn ( 9 ) Carl Ichan ( 8 ) casino ( 3 ) Casio ( 2 ) CBRE ( 2 ) CEF ( 2 ) Charles Akre ( 15 ) Charlie Munger ( 40 ) Chase Coleman ( 16 ) Chou Associates ( 29 ) Christmas gifts ( 7 ) Christopher H. Browne ( 7 ) Chuck Akre ( 13 ) Cisco ( 2 ) Class Action Settlements ( 2 ) CLEP ( 1 ) Coatue Management ( 28 ) Cochin ( 2 ) coin collecting ( 266 ) collectibles ( 266 ) Consumer Product Reviews ( 29 ) cook islands ( 2 ) coonoor ( 2 ) Covered Calls ( 2 ) credai ( 4 ) Daily Journal ( 37 ) Dalal Street ( 8 ) Dan Loeb ( 10 ) DAT ( 1 ) David Abrams ( 5 ) David Einhorn ( 22 ) David Swensen ( 17 ) David Tepper ( 15 ) David Winters ( 15 ) DCF ( 2 ) Digital Piano ( 3 ) Dinakar Singh ( 20 ) Donald Yacktman ( 10 ) dry bulk shipping ( 2 ) Duquesne ( 34 ) Education ( 37 ) Edward Lampert ( 21 ) Egerton Capital ( 39 ) Egypt ( 3 ) Elementary Education ( 10 ) Elementary School Textbooks ( 5 ) eReaders ( 2 ) Eric Mindich ( 13 ) ESL Investments ( 14 ) ESPP ( 6 ) ETF ( 2 ) ETN ( 2 ) Eton Park ( 13 ) Everyday Musings ( 58 ) Exam Prep ( 7 ) Exiting the rat race - how to? ( 19 ) EXPLORE ( 1 ) Fair Value Estimates ( 4 ) Fairfax Financial ( 4 ) Fairfax Financial Holdings ( 14 ) Fairholme ( 19 ) Fairpointe ( 28 ) Family Office ( 18 ) FD Laddering ( 1 ) Financial Independence ( 93 ) Fisher Asset Management ( 10 ) Flash Camcorders ( 3 ) flat ( 4 ) flats ( 2 ) Flip ( 3 ) Francis Chou ( 29 ) free ( 17 ) frugal ( 3 ) Frugal Living ( 34 ) Fund Holdings ( 961 ) futures ( 2 ) FVE ( 2 ) gambling ( 3 ) garmin ( 2 ) Genting ( 2 ) george soros ( 27 ) giveaway ( 15 ) Glenn Greenberg ( 20 ) Glenview Capital ( 14 ) GMAT ( 1 ) Google ( 2 ) Gotham Asset Management ( 7 ) gps ( 5 ) GRE ( 1 ) Greenlight Capital ( 22 ) Guitars ( 3 ) Half Marathon ( 2 ) Hawaii ( 2 ) Hedge Funds ( 1154 ) HELOC ( 1 ) High School Education ( 7 ) High School Textbooks ( 6 ) HOA ( 3 ) hobby ( 17 ) holiday shopping ( 7 ) Holidays ( 3 ) Holyland ( 11 ) Home Improvement ( 2 ) home ownership ( 5 ) Homes ( 18 ) Homeschool ( 18 ) Houses ( 2 ) Housing ( 3 ) Hykon ( 2 ) Ian Cumming ( 15 ) Icahn Enterprises ( 6 ) india real estate ( 5 ) Infinuvo ( 6 ) Insurance ( 3 ) invesco ( 17 ) investing strategies ( 3 ) Investment Portfolio ( 96 ) Investment Research ( 10 ) Investments ( 7 ) iRobot ( 5 ) Irving Kahn ( 13 ) israel ( 5 ) Jason Maynard ( 10 ) Jefferies ( 2 ) Jeffrey Bruce ( 39 ) Jeffrey Ubben ( 23 ) Jerusalem ( 2 ) Jim Chanos ( 20 ) Joel Greenblatt ( 7 ) John Armitage ( 40 ) John Griffin ( 16 ) John Paulson ( 17 ) Joho Capital ( 19 ) Jordan ( 3 ) Joseph Steinberg ( 9 ) Julian Robertson ( 4 ) Kahn Brothers ( 14 ) Kakkanad ( 4 ) Kanyakumari ( 2 ) Kawai ( 2 ) Ken Fisher ( 10 ) kerala real estate ( 5 ) Kids ( 49 ) Kids Yamaha ( 3 ) Kindle ( 2 ) kochi ( 8 ) Kodaikanal ( 2 ) Korg ( 2 ) Kraft ( 2 ) Kuala Lumpur ( 2 ) KWA ( 2 ) Kynikos ( 20 ) laptop ( 5 ) Larry Robbins ( 14 ) Las Vegas ( 2 ) Leon Cooperman ( 30 ) Leucadia ( 2 ) Leucadia National ( 13 ) Lone Pine Capital ( 9 ) long ( 6 ) long call ( 2 ) long puts ( 3 ) Lou Simpson ( 15 ) LSAT ( 1 ) Mahabalipuram ( 2 ) Malaysia ( 3 ) Marathon ( 2 ) Mark McGoldrick ( 10 ) Markel ( 23 ) Mason Hawkins ( 4 ) MCAT ( 1 ) Melinda Gates ( 31 ) memorabilia ( 266 ) MFP Investors ( 37 ) Michael Dell ( 22 ) Michael Price ( 40 ) Middle School Education ( 4 ) Middle School Textbooks ( 3 ) Mini Notebook ( 3 ) MODUS ( 1 ) Mohnish Pabrai ( 22 ) mortgage ( 2 ) Mount Kellett ( 10 ) MSD Capital ( 22 ) Music ( 6 ) Mutual Funds ( 8 ) mysore ( 2 ) Nelson Peltz ( 13 ) Netbook ( 4 ) Notebook ( 3 ) numismatics ( 266 ) O-Duster ( 1 ) Oahu ( 2 ) offers ( 2 ) Ole Andreas Halvorsen ( 10 ) Omega Advisors ( 29 ) online tax ( 4 ) ooty ( 2 ) Options ( 4 ) Pabrai Fund ( 17 ) passive income ( 7 ) pattaya ( 2 ) Paulson & Company ( 7 ) Paulson and Company ( 9 ) PEG ( 2 ) Pershing Square ( 19 ) Phil Fisher ( 5 ) philately ( 283 ) Philippe Laffont ( 28 ) Piano ( 9 ) PLAN Test ( 1 ) portfolio ( 4 ) Prem Watsa ( 17 ) product reviews ( 13 ) Property Taxes ( 2 ) PSAT ( 1 ) R2I ( 24 ) R2I Finances ( 3 ) R2I Housing ( 5 ) Raising Kids ( 41 ) Rat Race ( 15 ) RBS Partners ( 19 ) reading ( 5 ) real estate ( 6 ) Reducing Expenses ( 2 ) REIT ( 3 ) Retirement Portfolio ( 9 ) Reviews ( 81 ) Richard C. Blum ( 12 ) Robert Bruce ( 39 ) Robert Karr ( 19 ) Robotic Vacuum ( 4 ) Roland ( 2 ) Roomba ( 10 ) schooling ( 2 ) Sears ( 12 ) seeking alpha ( 2 ) Services - Reviews ( 33 ) Seth Klarman ( 19 ) Shipping ( 5 ) Shopping ( 3 ) short ( 5 ) short calls ( 2 ) short put ( 2 ) short puts ( 2 ) short selling ( 13 ) Ski ( 5 ) Sled ( 4 ) Solar Stocks ( 13 ) Soros Fund Management ( 14 ) Southeastern Asset Management ( 4 ) Southwest ( 2 ) spin-offs ( 2 ) SQ Advisors ( 15 ) stamp collecting ( 283 ) Stanley Druckenmiller ( 33 ) Statue of Liberty ( 2 ) Stephen Mandel ( 9 ) Stock Analysis ( 84 ) Stock Investments ( 4 ) Stock Portfolio Updates ( 6 ) stocks ( 3 ) summer ( 2 ) tax ( 7 ) TaxAct ( 3 ) TaxCut ( 1 ) Teacher's Editions ( 5 ) Technology ( 5 ) Test Prep ( 11 ) Thailand ( 3 ) Thekkady ( 2 ) theme park ( 2 ) Third Point ( 10 ) Thomas Gayner ( 40 ) Thyra Zerhusen ( 29 ) Tiger Cub ( 34 ) Tiger Global ( 17 ) Tiger Management ( 13 ) Time Square ( 2 ) TOEFL ( 1 ) TPG-Axon ( 20 ) Travel ( 278 ) Travel Reviews ( 82 ) Trian Fund Holdings ( 9 ) trip report ( 21 ) TurboTax ( 3 ) Tweedy Browne ( 10 ) Vacations ( 28 ) value investing ( 25 ) ValueAct ( 9 ) ValueAct Holdings ( 6 ) Vancouver ( 2 ) Video ( 3 ) Viking Global ( 10 ) Wallace Weitz ( 14 ) Warren Buffett ( 32 ) Wayanad ( 4 ) Weitz Investment Management ( 13 ) wilbur ross ( 17 ) William Von Mueffling ( 12 ) Wintergreen Advisors ( 15 ) Yacktman Asset Management ( 10 ) Yale Endowment ( 17 ) Yale University ( 7 ) Yamaha ( 7 ) YDP ( 1 ) YPG ( 1 )