Short Selling Strategy for Value Investors

The perils of short-selling can be summarized in a simple statement: “Upside is limited to 100% but downside is unlimited”. Some of the famously successful short-sellers such as George Soros are known to use strategies that limit the downside risk to less than the size of the initial short position while increasing the upside potential over 100% by using variations on the following strategy:

1. Set up stops at higher prices to close parts of your position, if the stock moves against you. The amount to close should be such that the size of the position remains at ~1%.
2. Set up entry points at lower prices to add to your short position, if the stock goes down. The amount to add should be such that the size of the position remains at ~1%.

An example follow:

1. Say your portfolio size is $100K and you want to start a 1% short position on XYZ stock priced at $10. So, you short 100 shares at $10.
2. If the stock doubles, close the short position and your loss will be $1K, or 1% impact to your portfolio. So, your losses are capped at 100% of your initial position. The same strategy can be used to close parts of the position at more granular points rather than waiting for the stock to double before closing. That can reduce the downside risk even more. In our example, if you dispose 50% of the position when the stock increased by 50% ($150) and disposed the rest when the stock doubled, your total loss is 75% of your initial position.
3. If the stock drops 50%, increase the short positon so as to keep the size of the position constant at 1%. This ensures that the portfolio impact will be more than 1%, or more than 100% of your initial short position. In our example, if the stock drops by 50% to $5, sell short another 100 shares so that the size of your short position remains at 1% of your portfolio (200 shares * $5 = $1K or 1% of your portfolio of $100K). At this point, you netted a total of $1.5K by selling short the 200 shares. Now, if the stock goes to zero, your profit would be $1.5K or 150% of your initial short position for a 1.5% overall portfolio impact. The strategy can be used in a more granular fashion to increase the return potential even further.

Carnival of Road to Financial Independence #39

Welcome to the January 25, 2012 edition of road to financial independence.


 

Frugal Living

Jon Elder presents Start Thinking Like a Millionaire in 2012 posted at Free Money Wisdom, saying, "2012 is the year you start getting serious about your finances and achieving your goal of becoming a millionaire."

Tim @ Faith and Finance presents 25 Simple Ways to Save Money posted at Faith and Finance, saying, "The challenge of finding ways to save money is to find alternatives that cost you less, but still give you the satisfaction you were looking for in the first place. Here are 25 ways to save money by using smart and simple alternatives."

 Sigh presents How I retired at age 30 posted at The best of kids sites on the web, saying, "Retire Early by living frugal"  

Paul Vachon presents iPhone Apps: Be Frugal Without Looking Like a Dork posted at The Frugal Toad, saying, "I recently bought an iPhone 4s and immediately did what everyone with an iPhone does, started downloading apps from the iTunes store. I found some great iPhone apps that can help you be frugal without looking like a dork:"

 Dina-Marie Oswald presents 40 Frugal Living Tips Revisited posted at Dimes2Vines, saying, "Frugal Living as a lifestyle can lead to great satisfaction as you strive to be a good steward and work together for common family goals."

Passive Income

Misst presents Imagining Your Retirement | Prairie Eco-Thrifter posted at Prairie Eco-Thrifter, saying, "The first step to achieving your retirement is to figure out what you want in retirement. If you fail to start thinking of your retirement plan now (regardless of how old you are), I think you will fail to achieve your goals."

Reducing Expenses

Clint Cora presents W8BEN Form For Canadians And Foreigners Who Work In The US posted at Motivation Diversity Success Blog, saying, "To help foreigners who get some income in the US reduce withholding tax"

Paul presents Make 2012 A Successful Year, Start Your Budget Now posted at Make Money Make Cents, saying, "This article is all about creating a budget in order to achieve financial success."

Theresa Torres presents 5 Ideas to Lower Energy Costs This Winter posted at Personal Finance News, Articles, Tips & Advice You Can Use, saying, "With the holiday expenses to take care of, a high energy cost can be a big drain on our finances. Here are some tips on how we can save on energy this winter."

Ben Dockery presents A Penny Unearned is 1.56 Pennies Saved: How to Avoid Financial Suicide posted at BENDOCKERY.COM, saying, "This is my latest article about money and the cost of a life in music." 

Stock Investments

Justin presents Nine Common Investing Mistakes posted at Money is the root...of all things GOOD!, saying, "Many people tend to make similar investing mistakes. Although we learn best from our very own mistakes, we can learn from other people’s errors. Read on to learn what mistakes others have made on the investing front."

 Mike Piper presents REITs Are Stocks posted at The Oblivious Investor, saying, "Despite misconceptions to the contrary, REITs are simply a type of stock. And they're already included in most broad index funds."  

Maxim Kazawy presents Companies Raising Dividends in January 2012 posted at Best Dividend Stocks, saying, "It has been a great start to the year 2012 with the S&P 500 up 4.6% year to date while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has racked up 4.12% in gains. The corporate business climate in America is improving with unemployment claims falling below 350,000 which is the lowest it has been since April 2008. In this bull market, I am searching for the best dividend paying stocks that are raising distributions. Let's start off with companies operating in the energy distribution and storage businesses."

All Others

Charles Chua C K presents Wisely Consider Online Banking posted at All About Living with Life.
 Hemant Beniwal presents Best Mutual Funds to Invest in 2012 in India posted at The Financial Literates, saying, "Indian Government has allowed foreign individual investors to invest in India. India is an emerging economy & everyone can divert some part of their portfolio in Indian Mutual Funds."

Super Saver presents Entitlement versus Opportunity posted at My Wealth Builder, saying, "The middle class was created by opportunity and the middle class is being destroyed by entitlement."  

Writers Coin presents Doing It for the Money…Would You? posted at The Writer's Coin, saying, "Would you take a job that triples your salary in exchange for mindless work and no chance of improvement? It's the Taco Bel challenge!"

Andy Boyd presents 20 Money-Related Jargon Terms & What They Mean posted at Magical Penny, saying, "Personal finance is riddled with jargon, which can be daunting enough to discourage the uninitiated to avoid managing their money. We've identified and defined 20 core terms to help clear this up."

John presents Switzerland Supports Criminals & Hurts Your Wallet posted at Wallet Blog, saying, "Hi Super Saver! I think your reader’s will really be interested in reading my submission this week, because it discusses how banking secrecy practices affect the wealth of the world. Secrecy…hmmm, wouldn’t we all like to know more? Thanks, Odysseas"  

Joe Morgan presents Want to Build Wealth, and be Secure? Focus on Learning Instead of Earning! posted at Simple Debt-Free Finance, saying, "Learning is a clear way toward earning more, but it doesn't end with formal education. In fact, it may not even pertain to formal education, but it can be even more important!"  

Carlos Sera presents An AARP Tale | Financial Tales posted at Financial Tales, saying, "For all those who may be interested in purchasing an immediate annuity from AARP and New York Life, please read this tale. I apologize to my younger audience but remember one day, this may apply to you and you must know the difference between the payout rate and the rate of return."
Mike Knowlton presents How do your Saving Habits Rank vs. a Squirrel's? posted at RatRaceExodus, saying, "Squirrels are better than saving than us. Learn to trick yourself into saving like a Squirrel."

Neal Frankle presents The 5 Best Side Jobs You?ve Overlooked posted at Wealth Pilgrim: Money Management Advice, Financial Stess Management, Addiction Recovery Plan & Resources, saying, "It doesn’t matter if you’re a senior in high school or a senior citizen at the Social Security Office. It never hurts to have a few extra dollars in your pocket. Here are five of the best side jobs to help you achieve just that:"

DeWitt Dudley presents Reporting Your Japanese or Foreign Inheritance posted at Los Angeles Asset Protection, Estate Planning, Tax Planning Blog, saying, "For complex tax issues, do not settle, contact the Tax Law Experts at Givner & Kaye. We're dedicated and aggressive. Contact us today. (310) 207-8008"

Sam Rogers presents Hard Work or a Secret Formula? posted at Personal Hack, saying, "Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work. - Thomas Edison"

That concludes this edition. Submit your blog article to the next edition of road to financial independence using our carnival submission form. Past posts and future hosts can be found on our blog carnival index page.

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Stock Portfolio and Watch List Updates for January 2012

Following are the activity from the previous month:

a)      Closed the following long positions: Harleysville Group (HGIC) at $57.02 for a 87.15% gain and 1.62% impact to the portfolio.

b)      Opened the following long positions: Cameco Corporation (CCJ) shares (Jan 2012 22.5) was assigned to us on 12/29/2011 for a 1.75% position, Alcoa Inc (AA) shares (Jan 2012 15) was assigned to us on 1/21/2012 for a 1.63% position, and Clearwire (CLWR) at $1.98 for a 1.57% position.

c)      Closed the following short put positions: H&R Block(HRB) shares (Jan 2012 10 and Jan 2012 12) for a 0.29% positive return on the overall portfolio.

The cash position in our portfolio is at 25.01%.

Portfolio Update:

 

The overall portfolio is slightly ahead of our cost-basis.

2012 Transactions Summary:

 

Excluding dividends, we have a realized gain of 2.11% in the portfolio.

We also have several options positions:

Short Puts: Click Software (CKSW) shares (May 2012 7.5), Applied Materials (AMAT) shares (Apr 2012 10), and Ameritrade (AMTD) shares (Feb 2012 14) with a cash coverage requirement of about 21% of our cash position.

Short Calls: Diebold (DBD) shares (May 2012 35 written at $3.40).

Long Calls: Apple (AAPL) shares (Feb 2012 380 bought at $21.75) with ~1% of total portfolio value.

Watch List: Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Amgen (AMGN), Air Products & Chemicals (APD), Beam Inc (BEAM), Bemis Company (BMS), Canon (CAJ), Church & Dwight Company (CHD), Canadian National Railway (CNI), Cresud (CRESY), Darden’s Restaurants (DRI), Emerson Electric (EMR), Kaman Corporation (KAMN), Coca Cola (KO), McGraw Hill (MHP), 3M Company (MMM), PepsiCo (PEP), State Auto Financial (STFC), Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), and Whirlpool (WHR).