ValueClick (VCLK) – Part 3 – Business Issues

The table below represents the company’s growth over the years:




















-2000200120022003200420052006 2007(E)2008(P)
Revenue (Millions)56.744.862.592.5169.2304 545.6650750
Earnings (Millions)(55.6)(7.2)(10.5)9.887.940.662.67590
Shares Outstanding (Millions)323773.774.38490100100100
Earnings/Share(1.72)(0.2)(0.14)0.131.050.450.620.750.9




The revenue growth of ValueClick for the most part reflects the revenue of the companies acquired as opposed to organic growth. However 2006 and 2007 saw organic revenue growth as the company benefited from expanding into Europe. Also worth mention is the synergy achieved through the integration of display ad network and comparison-shopping products. Revenue and Earnings are expected to grow at around the 20% range going forward.

ValueClick is currently priced at 30 times next year’s projected earnings. With an expected earnings growth of 20% the PEG ratio comes in at well above 1, making it a rich valuation. The shares also experience volatility on constant rumors about ValueClick getting acquired.

The current two-way split-up of the Internet ad inventory between the search engines and the display ad networks will soon see an overhaul with the arrival of the social media websites. Facebook and My Space along with other social media sites pose significant threats to the company’s display ad network business. Facebook’s flyer ads base behavioral targeting on the information volunteered by users as opposed to ValueClick’s model of concluding user interest based on online behavior. My Space also uses a similar strategy. Eventually, as the social media networks mature, the ad inventory will get split among search engines, social media, and display ad networks with the latter getting more headwinds.

The fact that Social Media is only in infancy with ideas still being developed into viable business models should be a cause for concern. The competitive landscape still in the works makes it difficult to gauge the full extent of this risk. Nevertheless, the overall advertiser inventory and the long tail of the Internet should continue to grow. ValueClick’s niche in serving this segment should hold steady moving forward.

The FTC (Federal Trade Commission) investigation into ValueClick’s lead generation business is a considerable risk factor. The immediate problem of decling revenue due to advertisers shying away from lead generation may already be factored in the share price. ValueClick did experience a precipitous price drop after 2nd quarter results came in below expectations. The investigation will help determine whether the company violated the CAN-SPAM act in its lead generation business. CAN-SPAM deals with rules that prohibit businesses from sending unwanted email messages to wireless devices. It has been noted that nearly one-third of ValueClick’s revenue may be tied to aggressive marketing that violates FTC guidelines. Regulation of the industry that results in negative growth in the lead generation business is the worst-case scenario.

Given the valuation, steady growth expectations in the company’s niche display ad market, and the prospects of developing the comparison shopping sites into significant retail ad revenue drivers, ValueClick should provide average returns in the long term.


ValueClick Analysis:
  1. Part 1 - Accretive Acquisitions Driving Growth.
  2. Part 2 - Developing Synergy Among Different Businesses.
  3. Part 3 - Business Issues.

No comments :

Labels

401k ( 15 ) ACT ( 1 ) AP ( 4 ) ARIUS ( 1 ) Abad Turtle Beach ( 1 ) Abrams Capital Management ( 5 ) Acoustic Electric Guitars ( 1 ) Acoustic Guitars ( 1 ) Activist ( 4 ) Address Change ( 2 ) Advanced Placement ( 4 ) Akre Capital Management ( 18 ) Alex Roepers ( 5 ) Appaloosa ( 15 ) Arlington Value Capital ( 3 ) Atlantic Investment Management ( 5 ) Ayemenem ( 1 ) BDCs ( 3 ) BP Capital Management ( 2 ) Bangalore ( 3 ) Bangkok ( 2 ) Bannerghatta National Park ( 1 ) Battery Park ( 1 ) Baupost ( 2 ) Baupost Group ( 17 ) Benjamin Graham ( 2 ) Benjamin Graham Model ( 2 ) Berijam Lake ( 2 ) Berkshire Hathaway ( 35 ) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation ( 45 ) Bill Ackman ( 19 ) Bill Gates ( 44 ) Blue Ridge Capital ( 16 ) Blum Capital Partners ( 12 ) Boone Pickens ( 2 ) Brave Warrior ( 3 ) Brave Warrior Advisors ( 20 ) Bruce Berkowitz ( 19 ) Bruce Fund ( 38 ) CANROYs ( 7 ) CBRE ( 2 ) CEF ( 2 ) CLEP ( 1 ) Camcorders ( 3 ) Cantillon ( 12 ) Carl Ichan ( 8 ) Casio ( 2 ) Charles Akre ( 15 ) Charlie Munger ( 41 ) Chase Coleman ( 16 ) Chou Associates ( 29 ) Christmas gifts ( 7 ) Christopher H. Browne ( 7 ) Chuck Akre ( 13 ) Cisco ( 2 ) Class Action Settlements ( 2 ) Coatue Management ( 28 ) Cochin ( 2 ) Consumer Product Reviews ( 29 ) Covered Calls ( 2 ) DAT ( 1 ) DCF ( 2 ) Daily Journal ( 38 ) Dalal Street ( 8 ) Dan Loeb ( 10 ) David Abrams ( 5 ) David Einhorn ( 22 ) David Swensen ( 17 ) David Tepper ( 15 ) David Winters ( 15 ) Digital Piano ( 3 ) Dinakar Singh ( 20 ) Donald Yacktman ( 10 ) Duquesne ( 34 ) ESL Investments ( 14 ) ESPP ( 6 ) ETF ( 2 ) ETN ( 2 ) EXPLORE ( 1 ) Education ( 37 ) Edward Lampert ( 21 ) Egerton Capital ( 43 ) Egypt ( 3 ) Elementary Education ( 10 ) Elementary School Textbooks ( 5 ) Eric Mindich ( 13 ) Eton Park ( 13 ) Everyday Musings ( 58 ) Exam Prep ( 7 ) Exiting the rat race - how to? ( 19 ) FD Laddering ( 1 ) FVE ( 2 ) Fair Value Estimates ( 4 ) Fairfax Financial ( 4 ) Fairfax Financial Holdings ( 14 ) Fairholme ( 19 ) Fairpointe ( 28 ) Family Office ( 18 ) Financial Independence ( 93 ) Fisher Asset Management ( 10 ) Flash Camcorders ( 3 ) Flip ( 3 ) Francis Chou ( 29 ) Frugal Living ( 34 ) Fund Holdings ( 961 ) GMAT ( 1 ) GRE ( 1 ) Genting ( 2 ) Glenn Greenberg ( 24 ) Glenview Capital ( 18 ) Google ( 2 ) Gotham Asset Management ( 7 ) Greenlight Capital ( 22 ) Guitars ( 3 ) HELOC ( 1 ) HOA ( 3 ) Half Marathon ( 2 ) Hawaii ( 2 ) Hedge Funds ( 1230 ) High School Education ( 7 ) High School Textbooks ( 6 ) Holidays ( 3 ) Holyland ( 11 ) Home Improvement ( 2 ) Homes ( 18 ) Homeschool ( 18 ) Houses ( 2 ) Housing ( 3 ) Hykon ( 2 ) Ian Cumming ( 15 ) Icahn Enterprises ( 6 ) Infinuvo ( 6 ) Insurance ( 3 ) Investment Portfolio ( 96 ) Investment Research ( 10 ) Investments ( 7 ) Irving Kahn ( 17 ) Jason Maynard ( 10 ) Jefferies ( 2 ) Jeffrey Bruce ( 39 ) Jeffrey Ubben ( 26 ) Jerusalem ( 2 ) Jim Chanos ( 20 ) Joel Greenblatt ( 7 ) John Armitage ( 44 ) John Griffin ( 16 ) John Paulson ( 17 ) Joho Capital ( 23 ) Jordan ( 3 ) Joseph Steinberg ( 9 ) Julian Robertson ( 4 ) KWA ( 2 ) Kahn Brothers ( 18 ) Kakkanad ( 4 ) Kanyakumari ( 2 ) Kawai ( 2 ) Ken Fisher ( 10 ) Kids ( 49 ) Kids Yamaha ( 3 ) Kindle ( 2 ) Kodaikanal ( 2 ) Korg ( 2 ) Kraft ( 2 ) Kuala Lumpur ( 2 ) Kynikos ( 20 ) LSAT ( 1 ) Larry Robbins ( 18 ) Las Vegas ( 2 ) Leon Cooperman ( 30 ) Leucadia ( 2 ) Leucadia National ( 13 ) Lone Pine Capital ( 9 ) Lou Simpson ( 15 ) MCAT ( 1 ) MFP Investors ( 37 ) MODUS ( 1 ) MSD Capital ( 22 ) Mahabalipuram ( 2 ) Malaysia ( 3 ) Marathon ( 2 ) Mark McGoldrick ( 10 ) Markel ( 24 ) Mason Hawkins ( 4 ) Melinda Gates ( 35 ) Michael Dell ( 22 ) Michael Price ( 40 ) Middle School Education ( 4 ) Middle School Textbooks ( 3 ) Mini Notebook ( 3 ) Mohnish Pabrai ( 22 ) Mount Kellett ( 10 ) Music ( 6 ) Mutual Funds ( 8 ) Nelson Peltz ( 17 ) Netbook ( 4 ) Notebook ( 3 ) O-Duster ( 1 ) Oahu ( 2 ) Ole Andreas Halvorsen ( 10 ) Omega Advisors ( 29 ) Options ( 4 ) PEG ( 2 ) PLAN Test ( 1 ) PSAT ( 1 ) Pabrai Fund ( 17 ) Paulson & Company ( 7 ) Paulson and Company ( 9 ) Pershing Square ( 19 ) Phil Fisher ( 5 ) Philippe Laffont ( 28 ) Piano ( 9 ) Prem Watsa ( 17 ) Property Taxes ( 2 ) R2I ( 24 ) R2I Finances ( 3 ) R2I Housing ( 5 ) RBS Partners ( 19 ) REIT ( 3 ) Raising Kids ( 41 ) Rat Race ( 15 ) Reducing Expenses ( 2 ) Retirement Portfolio ( 9 ) Reviews ( 81 ) Richard C. Blum ( 12 ) Robert Bruce ( 39 ) Robert Karr ( 23 ) Robotic Vacuum ( 4 ) Roland ( 2 ) Roomba ( 10 ) SQ Advisors ( 15 ) Sears ( 12 ) Services - Reviews ( 33 ) Seth Klarman ( 19 ) Shipping ( 5 ) Shopping ( 3 ) Ski ( 5 ) Sled ( 4 ) Solar Stocks ( 13 ) Soros Fund Management ( 14 ) Southeastern Asset Management ( 4 ) Southwest ( 2 ) Stanley Druckenmiller ( 33 ) Statue of Liberty ( 2 ) Stephen Mandel ( 9 ) Stock Analysis ( 84 ) Stock Investments ( 4 ) Stock Portfolio Updates ( 6 ) TOEFL ( 1 ) TPG-Axon ( 20 ) TaxAct ( 3 ) TaxCut ( 1 ) Teacher's Editions ( 5 ) Technology ( 5 ) Test Prep ( 11 ) Thailand ( 3 ) Thekkady ( 2 ) Third Point ( 10 ) Thomas Gayner ( 44 ) Thyra Zerhusen ( 29 ) Tiger Cub ( 34 ) Tiger Global ( 17 ) Tiger Management ( 13 ) Time Square ( 2 ) Travel ( 278 ) Travel Reviews ( 82 ) Trian Fund Holdings ( 10 ) TurboTax ( 3 ) Tweedy Browne ( 10 ) Vacations ( 28 ) ValueAct ( 11 ) ValueAct Holdings ( 8 ) Vancouver ( 2 ) Video ( 3 ) Viking Global ( 10 ) Wallace Weitz ( 18 ) Warren Buffett ( 32 ) Wayanad ( 4 ) Weitz Investment Management ( 17 ) William Von Mueffling ( 12 ) Wintergreen Advisors ( 15 ) YDP ( 1 ) YPG ( 1 ) Yacktman Asset Management ( 10 ) Yale Endowment ( 17 ) Yale University ( 7 ) Yamaha ( 7 ) air asia ( 2 ) airlines ( 2 ) apartments ( 2 ) barbuda ( 2 ) bay area ( 2 ) best sites ( 9 ) books ( 4 ) british honduras ( 2 ) canada ( 4 ) cancun ( 3 ) carl icahn ( 9 ) casino ( 3 ) coin collecting ( 266 ) collectibles ( 266 ) cook islands ( 2 ) coonoor ( 2 ) credai ( 4 ) dry bulk shipping ( 2 ) eReaders ( 2 ) flat ( 4 ) flats ( 2 ) free ( 17 ) frugal ( 3 ) futures ( 2 ) gambling ( 3 ) garmin ( 2 ) george soros ( 27 ) giveaway ( 15 ) gps ( 5 ) hobby ( 17 ) holiday shopping ( 7 ) home ownership ( 5 ) iRobot ( 5 ) india real estate ( 5 ) invesco ( 17 ) investing strategies ( 3 ) israel ( 5 ) kerala real estate ( 5 ) kochi ( 8 ) laptop ( 5 ) long ( 6 ) long call ( 2 ) long puts ( 3 ) memorabilia ( 266 ) mortgage ( 2 ) mysore ( 2 ) numismatics ( 266 ) offers ( 2 ) online tax ( 4 ) ooty ( 2 ) passive income ( 7 ) pattaya ( 2 ) philately ( 283 ) portfolio ( 4 ) product reviews ( 13 ) reading ( 5 ) real estate ( 6 ) schooling ( 2 ) seeking alpha ( 2 ) short ( 5 ) short calls ( 2 ) short put ( 2 ) short puts ( 2 ) short selling ( 13 ) spin-offs ( 2 ) stamp collecting ( 283 ) stocks ( 3 ) summer ( 2 ) tax ( 7 ) theme park ( 2 ) trip report ( 21 ) value investing ( 25 ) wilbur ross ( 17 )