Tracking David Tepper's Appaloosa Management Portfolio - Q4 2012 Update

Below is a spreadsheet that highlights the changes to David Tepper's Appaloosa Management's US long stock portfolio as of Q4 2012. For a look at how his portfolio has progressed, see our previous update:


 The most significant move this quarter was an 80% stake increase in Apple (AAPL) to a large over 10% of the US long portfolio position. Other significant moves include a 20% stake increase in Qualcom (QCOM) to a 3.72% position and new over 2% stakes in HCA Holdings (HCA), MetLife Inc. (MET), and SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) and CALLs. Tepper is still overweight on airline stocks although the position was trimmed this quarter.



Tracking Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office Portfolio - Q4 2012 Update

Below is a spreadsheet that highlights the changes to Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office US long stock portfolio as of Q4 2012. For a look at how his portfolio has progressed, see our previous update:


 Several significant stakes were established this quarter: US Airways Group (LCC), a large 4.2% position, Southern Company (SO), a large 3.85% position and smaller (less than 2%) positions in Ocwen Financial (OCN), PG&E Group (PCG), Verisign (VRSN), Workday Inc. (WDAY), YPF S A (YPF). There was a also a fairly large stake increase in Merck (MRK) to a 7.51% position and a 30% stake reduction in SunTrust Banks (STB) to a 2% position. The pattern of trades indicate Druckenmiller is following the uptrend in sectors such as airlines and utilities.

Tracking Francis Chou's Chou Associates Portfolio - Q4 2012 Update

Below is a spreadsheet that highlights the changes to Francis Chou's Chou Associates US long stock portfolio as of Q4 2012. For a look at how his portfolio has progressed, see our previous update:


 The portfolio went through several minor adjustments with the total value marginally decreasing from around $396M to around $382M. The only significantly large stake establishment was MBIA Inc. (MBI), a 2.22% of the US long portfolio position. Small positions (<=1%) established this quarter include Blackberry Inc. (BBRY) and Symetra Financial (SYA) and minor stake eliminations include Flagstone Reinsurance (FSR), Gap Inc. (GPS), Office Depot (ODP), SK Telecom (SKM), and Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX). Sprint Nextel (S) position was trimmed by one-third to a 3.15% position this quarter. Other stake reductions include marginal reductions in Resolute Forest Products (RFP), a large almost 10% position, Nokia Coporation (NOK), a 5% position, and Media General (MEG), a minute 0.25% position.



Tracking David Winters' Wintergreen Advisors Portfolio - Q4 2012 Update

Below is a spreadsheet that highlights the changes to David Winters' Wintergreen Advisors US long stock portfolio as of Q4 2012. For a look at how his portfolio has progressed, see our previous update:



 The quarter saw several incremental adjustments to the heavily concentrated portfolio with the total number of positions remaining steady at 12. Coca Cola (KO) was the only major move this quarter with a stake increase of around 50% - the stake currently accounts for 9.23% of the portfolio. The portfolio value increased marginally from around $740M to almost $760M. Incremental stake increases include Altria Group (MO), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and they each account for over 10% of the portfolio. Marginal stake reductions happened in the two smallest allocations in the portfolio: McDonalds Corp. (MCD) and Norfolk Southern (NSC), each accounting for around 1.5% of the portfolio.

Tracking Lou Simpson's SQ Advisors Portfolio - Q4 2012 Update

Below is a spreadsheet that highlights the changes to Lou Simpson's SQ Advisors US long stock portfolio as of Q4 2012. Please check-out our previous update to see how his portfolio has progressed:



 Changes this quarter include a 4.86% stake establishment in Moody's Corporation (MCO) and a 50% stake increase in Oracle (ORCL) to an 8.48% allocation.Stake reductions include a 50% disposal of Dell Inc (DELL), one-third disposal of Fiserv (FISV), another one-third elimination of Lowes (LOW).


Tracking John Paulson's Paulson and Co. Holdings - Q4 2012 Update

Below is a spreadsheet that shows the changes to Paulson's 13F US long portfolio as of Q4 2012. For a look at how his portfolio has progressed, see our previous update:


 Paulson's portfolio went up around 28% this quarter from around $12.71B to around $16.27B. Notable new positions include ~3.7% stake in Plains Exploration (PXP), ~3.4% stake in Realogy Holdings (RLGY), and a ~4.45% stake in Sprint Nextel (S). The only significantly large stake increase was Nexen (NXY) which was increased from a 1.2% position to over 4%. Sizable stake reductions included Anglo Ashanti Gold (AU) which was reduced from 7.8% to 5.4% and Delphi Automotive (DLPH) which was reduced from 6.1% to 3.1%.

Tracking Prem Watsa's Fairfax Financial Holdings - Q4 2012 Update

Below is a spreadsheet that shows changes to Prem Watsa's 13F US long holdings as of Q4 2012. To have a look at how the portfolio has progressed, see our previous update:


 The portfolio size increased by 27% this quarter from $1.97B to $2.51B. The increase was primarily due to the huge rebound in the shares of Blackberry Inc. (BBRY) in anticipation of the BB10 release. There were no new positions or stake disposals. The main activity in the quarter include:

  1.  A substantial stake increase in Exco Resources (XCO) to a significant 2.87% of the US long portfolio position at prices between $6.77 and $8.93. The stock trades below the low end of that range at around $6.50 currently.
  2. A 30% stake increase in Resolute Forest Products (RFP) at prices between $10.64 and $14.75. Watsa's cost-basis is much higher. It is Watsa's third largest position at 13.06% of the US long portfolio.  The stock currently trades at around $13.95.
  3. Sandridge Energy (SD) stake was increased from a small 1.54% position to a fairly large 8.20% position at prices between $5.19 and $7.75. The stock currently trades in the low-end of that range at around $5.41.
  4. Medium sized (2% to 4%) stakes in Frontier Communications (FRO), US Bancorp (USB), and Wells Fargo (WFC) were reduced marginally.


Tracking Ian Cumming and Joseph Steinberg's Leucadia National Portfolio - Q4 2012 Update

The spreadsheet below show Cumming's US stock holdings as of Q4 2012. Please visit our previous updates to get an idea on how the portfolio has progressed:



 There were no changes to Leucadia's US long positions this quarter. However, the portfolio value increased by over one-third as Jefferies Group (JEF) rebounded as a result of Leucadia's offer to buyout Jefferies (JEF). The terms call for JEF common stock to be converted to 0.81 shares of LUK common stock.


Tracking Carl Icahn's Holdings - Q4 2012 Update

Below is a spreadsheet that shows Carl Icahn's US long portfolio holdings as of Q4 2012. To know more on how his holdings have progress, check-out our previous update:


 Icahn's portfolio value increased by around 15% this quarter from $11.94B to $12.87B. There were several marginal increases and two stake eliminations: Commercial Metals (CMC), a ~1% position and Oshkosh Corporation (OSK), a ~2% position. The two large stakes in natural gas related businesses remains as strong holdings this quarter: CVR Energy Inc. (CVI) was kept steady and Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) was increased by around 20%. Other significant activity in the quarter include a large stake increase in Netflix (NFLX) to a 4% position and a new 2% stake in Transocean (RIG).


Tracking David Swensen's Yale Endowment Holdings - Q4 2012 Update

Below is a spreadsheet that shows the changes to Yale Endowment's US long portfolio holdings as of Q4 2012. To have an idea of how the endowment's holdings have progressed click on our previous update:



 The US long-portfolio continues to be a minute portion (0.1%) of the endowment's over $30B under management. There were several new positions and eliminations along with a couple of minor adjustments. None of the trades were of any significance as the values involved were insignificantly small compared to the overall portfolio value.


Tracking Wilbur Ross's Holdings - Q4 2012 Update

Below is a spreadsheet that shows changes to Wilbur Ross's US long portfolio as of Q4 2012. To see how his portfolio has progressed, click on our previous update:



 The portfolio had just three minor stake disposals this quarter: Bioscrip Inc. (BIOS), Key Energy Services (KEG), and United Continental (UAL). Of his top-3 positions, Assured Guaranty (AGO) and Exco Resources (XCO) are trading well below his cost-basis. The bulk of the AGO position was purchased in April 2008 in the $24 price-range while the XCO position was established in 2010 in the $16 price-range.

Beat Buffett with Tesco plc (TSCDY)

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway released their 2012 Annual Report (AR) last Friday March 1, 2013. A vital piece of information that Buffett chooses to discloses in the AR is the cost-basis of his major (over $1B market value) common stock holdings. Below is a comparative spreadsheet of such positions from last year's and this year's ARs:




 The spreadsheet indicates that Buffett's cost-basis on ConocoPhiliips (COP), DIRECTV (DTV), and Tesco plc (TSCDY) are very close to or below the market values as of EOY2012. DTV share price has since come down by another 3% while the other two stocks have remained steady since the beginning of the year. Currently, TSCDY is still trading below his cost basis while DTV and COP are trading marginally above. These are potentially good opportunities for further research with an eye toward establishing long positions. TSCDY is a medium sized 2.7% of the total common stock portfolio position while the other two positions are somewhat smaller. His top-four holdings are trading well above his cost-basis with IBM the only one trading anywhere near his price-range. AXP and WFC traded near his cost-basis during the financial crisis and in hindsight they were good opportunities.

Clarification on Buffett's cost-basis on Tesco plc:  Buffett's owns the London listed shares as opposed to the ADRs (TSCDY). TSCDY trades at around $17 per share and Buffett's cost-basis on the London listed shares is $5.66. As one Tesco ADR is equivalent to 3 ordinary shares, Buffett's cost-basis in terms of the ADR shares is right at around $17 ($5.66*3).

Note that owning Tesco also acts as a slight hedge against the US dollar. This can be easily visualized by considering the following scenario: The London listed shares currently trade at around 370p and pays a yearly dividend of 14.76p (x-dividend for the final dividend of 10.13p for 2012-13 was 04/24/2013 and the preliminary dividend for 2013-14 fiscal year should be in October 2013). That translates to $5.62 (370*1.52/100) for the share price and 22.37c for the dividend, based on the current conversion of $1.52 to a pound. Say the dollar crashes and trades at $2 to a pound at a future point. When denominated in dollars, Tesco share price will then increase to $7.40 (370*2/100) and the dividend will be 29.52c. The ADR price will increase to around $22.20 (370*2*3/100) to reflect this, thus forming a natural hedge.

Last Updated: 06/2013. 


Liberty Media Starz Spin-off Details

The spin-off was effective Jan 10, 2013. It worked as follows:

  1. Liberty Media was renamed Starz, LLC. 
  2. The business assets of Liberty Media except Starz assets were transferred to Liberty Spinco, Inc. which was in turn renamed as Liberty Media. 
  3. As a result, old Liberty Capital (LMCA) shareholders received one share of new LMCA common stock for each of the old shares owned. The old LMCA shares were renamed STRZA. The two new stocks (LMCA and STRZA) started trading Jan 14, 2013. 
 STRZA entity had 2012 revenue of around $1.63B and EPS of $2.08. Revenue is expected to remain steady next year with EPS coming down to $1.72. The valuation appears reasonable although the real play with STRZA is the chance of a buy-out. Five-star hedge funds are already in the game: Buffett previously held LMCA shares and so should end up holding 5.6M STRZA shares - 4.67% of the company. Other funds with sizable stakes include Steve Cohen's SAC Capital, Gates Foundation, D.E. Shaw, and Madison Street Partners. SAC & Gates initiated ~6% positions late last month - their cost-basis should be around $16. 

John Malone controls the business as evidenced by the over 40% voting stake.

Last Updated: 06/2013. 

 

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