Tracking Soros Fund Mangement Holdings

George Soros is the founder (1969) and Chairman of Soros Fund Management, a hedge fund management firm. In the four decades through 2010, the fund posted exceptional returns, averaging a 20% annual rate. With an estimated Assets Under Management [AUM] of $25B, the fund currently operates as a "family office" -- in July 2011, outside investors were informed their money would be returned. Read more at Seeking Alpha...

Short Selling Strategy for Value Investors


The perils of short-selling can be summarized in a simple statement: “Upside is limited to 100% but downside is unlimited”. Some of the famously successful short-sellers such as George Soros are known to use strategies that limit the downside risk to less than the size of the initial short position while increasing the upside potential over 100% by using variations on the following strategy:

  1. Set up stops at higher prices to close parts of your position, if the stock moves against you. The amount to close should be such that the size of the position remains at ~1%.
  2. Set up entry points at lower prices to add to your short position, if the stock goes down. The amount to add should be such that the size of the position remains at ~1%.

An example follow:

  1. Say your portfolio size is $100K and you want to start a 1% short position on XYZ stock priced at $10. So, you short 100 shares at $10.
  2. If the stock doubles, close the short position and your loss will be $1K, or 1% impact to your portfolio. So, your losses are capped at 100% of your initial position. The same strategy can be used to close parts of the position at more granular points rather than waiting for the stock to double before closing. That can reduce the downside risk even more. In our example, if you dispose 50% of the position when the stock increased by 50% ($150) and disposed the rest when the stock doubled, your total loss is 75% of your initial position.
  3. If the stock drops 50%, increase the short positon so as to keep the size of the position constant at 1%. This ensures that the portfolio impact will be more than 1%, or more than 100% of your initial short position. In our example, if the stock drops by 50% to $5, sell short another 100 shares so that the size of your short position remains at 1% of your portfolio (200 shares * $5 = $1K or 1% of your portfolio of $100K). At this point, you netted a total of $1.5K by selling short the 200 shares. Now, if the stock goes to zero, your profit would be $1.5K or 150% of your initial short position for a 1.5% overall portfolio impact. The strategy can be used in a more granular fashion to increase the return potential even further.


Related Posts:
Last Updated: 04/2012.

 

Carnival of Road to Financial Independence #39

Welcome to the January 25, 2012 edition of road to financial independence.


 

Frugal Living

Jon Elder presents Start Thinking Like a Millionaire in 2012 posted at Free Money Wisdom, saying, "2012 is the year you start getting serious about your finances and achieving your goal of becoming a millionaire."

Tim @ Faith and Finance presents 25 Simple Ways to Save Money posted at Faith and Finance, saying, "The challenge of finding ways to save money is to find alternatives that cost you less, but still give you the satisfaction you were looking for in the first place. Here are 25 ways to save money by using smart and simple alternatives."

 Sigh presents How I retired at age 30 posted at The best of kids sites on the web, saying, "Retire Early by living frugal"  

Paul Vachon presents iPhone Apps: Be Frugal Without Looking Like a Dork posted at The Frugal Toad, saying, "I recently bought an iPhone 4s and immediately did what everyone with an iPhone does, started downloading apps from the iTunes store. I found some great iPhone apps that can help you be frugal without looking like a dork:"

 Dina-Marie Oswald presents 40 Frugal Living Tips Revisited posted at Dimes2Vines, saying, "Frugal Living as a lifestyle can lead to great satisfaction as you strive to be a good steward and work together for common family goals."

Passive Income

Misst presents Imagining Your Retirement | Prairie Eco-Thrifter posted at Prairie Eco-Thrifter, saying, "The first step to achieving your retirement is to figure out what you want in retirement. If you fail to start thinking of your retirement plan now (regardless of how old you are), I think you will fail to achieve your goals."

Reducing Expenses

Clint Cora presents W8BEN Form For Canadians And Foreigners Who Work In The US posted at Motivation Diversity Success Blog, saying, "To help foreigners who get some income in the US reduce withholding tax"

Paul presents Make 2012 A Successful Year, Start Your Budget Now posted at Make Money Make Cents, saying, "This article is all about creating a budget in order to achieve financial success."

Theresa Torres presents 5 Ideas to Lower Energy Costs This Winter posted at Personal Finance News, Articles, Tips & Advice You Can Use, saying, "With the holiday expenses to take care of, a high energy cost can be a big drain on our finances. Here are some tips on how we can save on energy this winter."

Ben Dockery presents A Penny Unearned is 1.56 Pennies Saved: How to Avoid Financial Suicide posted at BENDOCKERY.COM, saying, "This is my latest article about money and the cost of a life in music." 


Stock Investments

Justin presents Nine Common Investing Mistakes posted at Money is the root...of all things GOOD!, saying, "Many people tend to make similar investing mistakes. Although we learn best from our very own mistakes, we can learn from other people’s errors. Read on to learn what mistakes others have made on the investing front."

 Mike Piper presents REITs Are Stocks posted at The Oblivious Investor, saying, "Despite misconceptions to the contrary, REITs are simply a type of stock. And they're already included in most broad index funds."  

Maxim Kazawy presents Companies Raising Dividends in January 2012 posted at Best Dividend Stocks, saying, "It has been a great start to the year 2012 with the S&P 500 up 4.6% year to date while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has racked up 4.12% in gains. The corporate business climate in America is improving with unemployment claims falling below 350,000 which is the lowest it has been since April 2008. In this bull market, I am searching for the best dividend paying stocks that are raising distributions. Let's start off with companies operating in the energy distribution and storage businesses."

All Others

Charles Chua C K presents Wisely Consider Online Banking posted at All About Living with Life.
 Hemant Beniwal presents Best Mutual Funds to Invest in 2012 in India posted at The Financial Literates, saying, "Indian Government has allowed foreign individual investors to invest in India. India is an emerging economy & everyone can divert some part of their portfolio in Indian Mutual Funds."

Super Saver presents Entitlement versus Opportunity posted at My Wealth Builder, saying, "The middle class was created by opportunity and the middle class is being destroyed by entitlement."  

Writers Coin presents Doing It for the Money…Would You? posted at The Writer's Coin, saying, "Would you take a job that triples your salary in exchange for mindless work and no chance of improvement? It's the Taco Bel challenge!"

Andy Boyd presents 20 Money-Related Jargon Terms & What They Mean posted at Magical Penny, saying, "Personal finance is riddled with jargon, which can be daunting enough to discourage the uninitiated to avoid managing their money. We've identified and defined 20 core terms to help clear this up."

John presents Switzerland Supports Criminals & Hurts Your Wallet posted at Wallet Blog, saying, "Hi Super Saver! I think your reader’s will really be interested in reading my submission this week, because it discusses how banking secrecy practices affect the wealth of the world. Secrecy…hmmm, wouldn’t we all like to know more? Thanks, Odysseas"  

Joe Morgan presents Want to Build Wealth, and be Secure? Focus on Learning Instead of Earning! posted at Simple Debt-Free Finance, saying, "Learning is a clear way toward earning more, but it doesn't end with formal education. In fact, it may not even pertain to formal education, but it can be even more important!"  

Carlos Sera presents An AARP Tale | Financial Tales posted at Financial Tales, saying, "For all those who may be interested in purchasing an immediate annuity from AARP and New York Life, please read this tale. I apologize to my younger audience but remember one day, this may apply to you and you must know the difference between the payout rate and the rate of return."
Mike Knowlton presents How do your Saving Habits Rank vs. a Squirrel's? posted at RatRaceExodus, saying, "Squirrels are better than saving than us. Learn to trick yourself into saving like a Squirrel."

Neal Frankle presents The 5 Best Side Jobs You?ve Overlooked posted at Wealth Pilgrim: Money Management Advice, Financial Stess Management, Addiction Recovery Plan & Resources, saying, "It doesn’t matter if you’re a senior in high school or a senior citizen at the Social Security Office. It never hurts to have a few extra dollars in your pocket. Here are five of the best side jobs to help you achieve just that:"

DeWitt Dudley presents Reporting Your Japanese or Foreign Inheritance posted at Los Angeles Asset Protection, Estate Planning, Tax Planning Blog, saying, "For complex tax issues, do not settle, contact the Tax Law Experts at Givner & Kaye. We're dedicated and aggressive. Contact us today. (310) 207-8008"

Sam Rogers presents Hard Work or a Secret Formula? posted at Personal Hack, saying, "Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work. - Thomas Edison"

That concludes this edition. Submit your blog article to the next edition of road to financial independence using our carnival submission form. Past posts and future hosts can be found on our blog carnival index page.
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Stock Portfolio and Watch List Updates for January 2012


Following are the activity from the previous month:

a)      Closed the following long positions: Harleysville Group (HGIC) at $57.02 for a 87.15% gain and 1.62% impact to the portfolio.
b)      Opened the following long positions: Cameco Corporation (CCJ) shares (Jan 2012 22.5) was assigned to us on 12/29/2011 for a 1.75% position, Alcoa Inc (AA) shares (Jan 2012 15) was assigned to us on 1/21/2012 for a 1.63% position, and Clearwire (CLWR) at $1.98 for a 1.57% position.
c)      Closed the following short put positions: H&R Block(HRB) shares (Jan 2012 10 and Jan 2012 12) for a 0.29% positive return on the overall portfolio.

The cash position in our portfolio is at 25.01%.

Portfolio Update:


 
The overall portfolio is slightly ahead of our cost-basis.

2012 Transactions Summary:



 
Excluding dividends, we have a realized gain of 2.11% in the portfolio.

We also have several options positions:

Short Puts: Click Software (CKSW) shares (May 2012 7.5), Applied Materials (AMAT) shares (Apr 2012 10), and Ameritrade (AMTD) shares (Feb 2012 14) with a cash coverage requirement of about 21% of our cash position.

Short Calls: Diebold (DBD) shares (May 2012 35 written at $3.40).

Long Calls: Apple (AAPL) shares (Feb 2012 380 bought at $21.75) with ~1% of total portfolio value.

Watch List: Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Amgen (AMGN), Air Products & Chemicals (APD), Beam Inc (BEAM), Bemis Company (BMS), Canon (CAJ), Church & Dwight Company (CHD), Canadian National Railway (CNI), Cresud (CRESY), Darden’s Restaurants (DRI), Emerson Electric (EMR), Kaman Corporation (KAMN), Coca Cola (KO), McGraw Hill (MHP), 3M Company (MMM), PepsiCo (PEP), State Auto Financial (STFC), Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), and Whirlpool (WHR).


Tracking Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Holdings

Bill Ackman, a New York hedge fund manager, is the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management LP. Currently, he operates three funds: The Pershing Square, Pershing Square II, and Pershing Square International. The inception date of the flagship fund Pershing Square is Jan. 1, 2004, while that of the latter two funds are a year later at Jan. 1, 2005. Cumulative returns for the funds as of Q3 2011 stood at ~300%, ~200%, and ~160%, respectively, compared to the low-double-digit returns that most indices returned during the period. Read more at Seeking Alpha...


Munnar Trip Report


Munnar, a hill-station in the Western Ghats, ranked high in our list of must-visit places for our first summer vacation back in Kerala. Located at 1600 meters above sea level, it is considered among the most beautiful hill-resort towns in Southern India. Munnar is less than 120 km east of Kakkanad but the trip can take upwards of three hours – it will be lot longer for first timers, as stopping by the many vista points along the way is a given. Our visit was during the first week of May – August to May is considered high-season as the monsoons are light or non-existent during those times. A minimum of three days is required to relax and enjoy everything Munnar has to offer.

Munnar boasts a large array of hotels and resorts that vary in pricing from below Rs 1000 for budget cottages like JJ Cottage in Old Munnar to those as high as Rs 15K for a 1000 square foot villa at Windemere Estate.  We chose to stay at the Marthoma Retreat Home (Rs 2200 regular, Rs 1800 with discount), a mid-priced place run by the Marthoma church group who manage a number of charities for the locals including a nursery school – as service levels are slightly below par it cannot be strictly classified as a resort hotel. Nevertheless, the location is perfect – nice view and only a kilometer away from Munnar city area on Mattupetty Road.

Our first stop on the way there was Cheeyappara Falls located between Neriamangalam and Adimali on NH49 (about 75 km from Kakkanad). The falls feature seven steps and there is a short-hike up to a vantage location behind the falls. Facilities are very limited and a certain amount of garbage dumping affects the beauty of the place, but overall it is a good stopover option. Bathing is prohibited as falling rocks pose a danger. Around 10KM from Munnar town is the detour to Pallivasal Hydroelectric Project. On both sides of the road are giant pipes that run down to the power station area and tagging the pipes are a hiking option. Tea estates blanket the area surrounding Chithirapuram. Eateries catering to all budgets are aplenty in and around Munnar. At the low-end of the spectrum are places such as Saravana Bhavan (meals on leaves for around Rs 50) and the smaller, less crowded and a slight step-up alternative Annapoorna Restaurant. Several lunch buffet options in the Rs 200 vicinity are also available as mid-range options. At the high end are major resorts with exclusive restaurants that feature fancy buffet fare.

The first of our two road-trips in Munnar was on the Mattupetty Road to the Dam and Top Station. Top Station, located 37 km away on the Kerala-Tamilnadu border with panoramic views of the Western Ghats, is a good hiking spot. About 10 km into the road-trip is Mattupetti Dam with street vendors hawking their ware on either side of the road past the bridge. Speed boat rides are on offer here at about Rs 300/- for a 15minutes use (4-5 people max). Nearby is an Indo-Swiss farm where the Kerala Livestock Development Board (KLDB) rears more than 100 varieties of high-yielding cattle. Tourists hoping to see the place should avail special permission beforehand from KLDB. Further on this route a few kilometers apart are Echo Point and Elephant Arrival Spot – two attractions worth a stopover. The former is a scenic spot beside a small lake – any sound produced is echoed back from the surrounding hills and hence the name. The latter is a spot from which wild elephants can be viewed occasionally – an elephant ride is offered sometimes for around Rs 350/- pp. The best spot in the entire road-trip is Kundala Lake, whose access is via an unassuming approach road in dire need of maintenance. This stunningly beautiful lake is a great picnic spot. Boating on the lake is a major tourist activity and all kinds of boats are available for rent including the Kashmiri Shikara – pedal boats are the easiest to handle.

A few yards from our retreat on Mattupetty Road is KFDC Floriculture center, an exquisitely maintained botanical garden. Entrance Fee is very nominal (Rs 10) and is open from 9AM to 5:45PM – as with many government run properties in Kerala, pricing is bizarre for certain things – professional camera use is an exorbitant Rs 500/- while regular or mobile cameras are just Rs 20. The facility houses a huge display of regional flowers and other exotic items. Local spices are also available at the counter also for reasonable prices – the star attraction is sandalwood from the famous Marayoor area, the only place in Kerala where sandalwood trees grow naturally.

Our second road-trip was on the Marayoor road. Marayoor is 40 km away. Major attractions en route include Tata Tea Museum and Eravikulam National Park (2 km and 15 km from Munnar). Eravikulam National Park has the reputation of being the cleanest park in India and is the site of Nilgiri Tahr, an endangered species of mountain goat. By Indian standards, Eravikulam National Park is a great facility with a well-organized setup. The place is however very popular and so it is best to try and reach there by around 7:30 AM – technically the place opens at 8 AM, but the ticket counter is functional only by 8:15 AM. A mini-bus transports the ticket holders (Rs 45 Indians and Rs 230 foreigners) to the park entrance (~2 miles up). The main entrance area has a nice building with a curio shop (stocked with themed T-shirts, caps, books (such as The Book of Indian Birds by Dr. Salim Ali), local honey and chocolate, and a snack bar. The best place to see the Nilgiri Tahr (Varayad) is a mile away and is a good hike. Plenty of Neelakurunji (a plant species that blooms every twelve years turning the entire Rajamalai blue) can be seen here – a park ranger can effortlessly point out this pretty unassuming plant species. Anamudi Peak, the highest peak south of the Himalayas is inside Eravikulam National Park – trekking in the area is possible, but advance planning is of the essence. The natural sandalwood forest in Marayoor (25 km from Eravikulam National Park) is well worth a visit, which unlike most places in Munnar is not at all commercialized – a children’s park extending 2.5 acres under the canopy of a single banyan tree is a prime tourist spot.


Tracking Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Fund Holdings

Bruce Berkowitz, a Miami fund advisor, is the founder and managing member of Fairholme Capital Management, LLC. He is the advisor for three mutual funds: Fairholme Fund (FAIRX), Fairholme Focused Income Fund (FOCIX), and Fairholme Allocation Fund (FAAFX). Read more at Seeking Alpha...

Holyland Trip - Gotchas to avoid


Holyland trip was our first time traveling with an organized tour group. Undoubtedly the biggest edge such arrangements have is the ability to provide the vacationer the opportunity to experience much more than going solo. However traveling with groups has numerous catches too. Below is a list – not all applies to everyone as some are specific to this tour group and the tour company while others are more generic:

  1. It will be a while before folks used to the western way of traveling get the hang of the approach of the local tour companies in Kerala. Training for the tour company personnel is usually lax. When seeking information the cardinal rule is to check with those holding managerial positions. We tripped up several times for not knowing this modus operandi:
a)      Upon contacting over the phone, it is the norm for the representative to mention they will get back to you. While this is probably uttered in good faith, they never get around to actually placing that call – the client is expected to call back. Prior to booking our trip, we had numerous concerns and almost every time we called, this was the pattern we experienced. The irony was that in order to get us to sign up they even offered a house call to furnish us with all the details of the tour which was again a no-show.
b)      During our initial contact with the tour personnel, it was mentioned that fare price was inclusive of food, although lunch will generally be snacks in order to save time. While we were fine with this, it was a pleasant surprise to have proper buffet lunch everyday.
c)      The price was quoted as Rs 59.5K (~$1320) per person when we paid the advance. About two weeks before the trip, we went to the office and paid the rest of the amount. Couple of hours later they called to inform they had omitted to inform the trip cost has increased to Rs 60.5K (~$1345). To say we were irritated with them for not mentioning this fare hike while we were in the office was putting it mildly.
d)     We had signed up for the 11-day tour that included two days in Syria. The advance amount was quoted over phone as Rs 10K (~$220) per person. But, at the time of paying this amount, the person at the desk informed the advance for the trip with Syria is Rs 25K (~$555).  When we hesitated, they were fine with Rs 10K – unprofessional.
e)      There was a mention of Rs 5K discount for kids between ages 5 and12, and we specifically asked whether the accommodation for the four of us (two adults and two kids) were going to be in in a single room with extra beds or pull-aways. The staff vaguely said we should be provided adjacent rooms with a common door - the vagueness should have clued us on the reality.  Had we known this, we would probably have paid the extra to get an extra room – with just one shower getting ready on days when wake up calls were very early was indeed a challenge.
f)       The tour company promised an orientation session a month before the actual trip. Four weeks prior to the departure date, we called to inquire about this. To our chagrin, they flippantly told the tour might be postponed by three weeks. They promised to call back the same day with details but never did. Since we were bent on getting the facts we stopped by their office - the staff reiterated their words and offered various reasons for this change. Difficulty in confirming the flight tickets – lack of people signing up for the trip – election dates clashing – and others along similar lines featured in this laundry list. At that point, we asked to initiate cancellation procedures. After some internal discussion we were connected with the manager who explained how they had to accommodate a Syria tour request three weeks out. Hence they had to compromise on the Syria leg of our tour group. A Holyland tour (excluding Syria) on our promised dates was still ON and if we wished we could be part of that group. As we had scheduled our vacation around these dates we decided to go with that and got everything in writing. It took a while to get over the half-baked responses of the admin.
g)      In-spite of having photocopies of our passports they forged ahead with the process for optional medical insurance only to refund that money after they realized the medical insurance company insures Indian passport holders only. This is another instance where lack of training shone through.

All in all, our takeaway was that the tour company staff was incompetent – not only were they tightfisted in providing information but also unreliable on the information given out. Hence it was mind blowing that they pulled-off an almost perfect trip.

  1. Travel companions are an unknown when traveling with a tour group unless you rope in your contacts or it is a church group with enough members to form a group of their own (40+). Either way, it is worthwhile to consider the following when booking a Holyland tour:
a)      Surprisingly Christian faith is all over the map and is highly influenced by the sub-group they belong to. Some have conflicting views on certain aspects of the religion. The way of praying can also be diametrically opposite. It is best to be aware of these differences and if at all possible be with a compatible group. Otherwise, it is conflict in waiting as there will be different views on what is worth seeing and for how long. An ecumenical approach (though not reciprocated) will certainly help in promoting harmony.
b)      Tour companies with offices in different states of India sometimes combine clients on a tour. In general, this is not ideal as a lot of communication happens in the native language.
c)      Proprietors of tour companies generally have personal-level contacts with local businesses in the Holyland. For those who are flexible with dates it is certainly advantageous to book for a tour when the proprietor is traveling – for then the tour operators at the host countries they employ, hotel staff, and restaurant staff aim to impress the proprietor by putting in extra effort.

  1. Keralites generally rate their table manners and hygiene levels as good, which is not true. At the very minimum the following should be observed:
a)      Keeping the mouth closed while eating.
b)      Avoid using the soiled plate for seconds in a buffet setting.
c)      Using utensils instead of relying on bare hands.
d)     Using desanitizer before and after using the restroom.

  1. General information to be aware of include:
a)      It is a widely-held notion that Holyland tours from Kerala are geared towards older folks. Hence it is usual to find a significant percentage of retirees on such tours of which a small minority is not all that mobile. Tour reps usually have processes in place to accommodate their inability while making sure the rest of the group is not slowed down. This is something to keep in mind for in certain situations prodding the rep may be necessary.
b)      Most of the places visited have souvenir shops and the tour reps usually allot time for shopping at certain shops. In general, such shops generally do not have the best bargains. For those with good bargaining skills, street vendors provide the biggest bang. Bethlehem, old Jerusalem, and Cairo are better places to shop in terms of value compared to other parts of Palestine, Israel, and Egypt.
c)      Water shortage is real and many restaurants do not serve complimentary water. Tour operators generally supply limited amounts of bottled water. It pays to label the bottles and keep them around for the length of the tour.
d)     Most parts of Israel religiously observe Sabbath from a few minutes before sunset Friday evening until a few minutes after the appearance of three stars on the Saturday night sky. Religious areas see very little activity during this period. Tourists need to be aware that Jewish hotels run Sabbath elevators which automatically stops at all floors – they are specifically marked and allow religious Jews to circumvent the Jewish law which prevents them from operating switches.
e)      Unlike most churches in Kerala, even the holiest of place in Israel permit footwear. Tourists need to heed this as the exit is usually different from the entrance.
f)       As it is a long 9-day trip, folks assume they would be seeing most of the sights the area has got on offer. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is important to realize that many tours take upwards of nine days to cover each of the three major countries in this tour (Jordan, Egypt, and Israel) as a single tour. Understandably this tour covers only 20-30% of the tourist spots – hopefully, the best parts important to you are included. Our tour did a good job of covering all the important Christian sites and also tried to accommodate as much other sites of common interest as possible.

401K & Retirement Accounts 2011 Performance Summary


The total return this year was -6.22%, well below the 14.24% return we achieved last year. The performance compares with the returns of domestic indexes which are flat, emerging market indexes which are down over 20%, and other developed market indexes which are also down over 20%. We started the year with an allocation of 37-34-29 among Domestic, International, and Bond Funds respectively and did some minor changes during the year. The allocation is now at 37-31-32. For 2012, we expect minor reallocations to the portfolio. An update will follow.

Below is our current portfolio:



If the market rallies as the year progresses, we will continue to shift more into bonds and vice-versa.

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