Stock Portfolio Summary – Beginning Of Year (BOY) 2008

Below is our stock portfolio as BOY 2008:

































































StockBuy DateBuy PriceCurrent PriceCurrent % Of PortfolioUnrealized % ReturnCurrent Yield
Philip Morris (MO)1/4/200546.5475.588.9062.393.90
Kraft Foods (KFT)1/4/200521.1132.632.6554.543.30
Plum Creek Timber (PCL)5/12/200535.546.048.1329.683.60
Pfizer (PFE)2/6/200625.1522.73-5.35(9.64)5.60
ICICI Bank (IBN)5/18/200627.5761.5010.86123.040.80
Taiwan Semi (TSM)7/27/20068.719.995.8914.813.60
Advantage Energy Fund (AAV)11/2/200611.228.813.37(21.51)16.80
SunTech Power (STP) 3/14/200736.73455.3022.53None
Central Europe & Russia Fund (CEE)6/28/200751.558.025.1212.5217.90
Patni Computers (PTI)8/10/200720.8516.274.79(22.03)0.80
Itron Inc. (ITRI)11/07/200785.0195.975.6512.76None
Anthracite (AHR)11/09/20077.977.244.26(9.16)15.60
ClickSoftware (CKSW)11/09/20074.614.042.38(12.36)None
LDK Solar (LDK)11/21/200730.3047.0113.8455.15None
Harvest Energy (HTE)11/28/200721.0120.774.89(1.16)17.30
iRobot (IRBT)12/18/200718.6518.083.46(3.06)None
MCG Capital (MCGC)12/21/200711.8611.594.09(2.25)15.00
Cash











1.06







Total Portfolio















20.85





  • For SunTech Power (STP), we wrote a call option for March 45 (see first table) and so the price is listed as $45 as we won’t participate in the appreciation beyond that plus the premium received.
It is fairly defensive with a significant leaning toward large caps and stocks that provide good dividend yield. The combination should help stabilize the portfolio. The downside being returns will be lower compared to aggressive growth portfolios should a bull market ensue going forward.

Global Breakdown:


























Market Countries Represented Stocks Percentage of Portfolio
Emerging Markets China, India, Taiwan STP, LDK, IBN, PTI, TSM 40.68
Eastern Europe Russia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey CEE 5.12
Developed Markets Canada AAV, HTE 8.26
Middle East Israel CKSW 2.38
- USA MO, KFT, PCL, PFE, ITRI, AHR, IRBT, MCGC 43.56
Cash - - 1.06


Industry Specific Breakdown:































Industry Stocks Percentage of Portfolio
Financials IBN 10.86
Pharmaceuticals PFE 5.35
Technology PTI, TSM, CKSW, IRBT 16.52
Energy STP, LDK, ITRI 24.79
Consumer Staples/Tobacco/Timber KFT, MO, PCL 19.68
REIT/BDCs/CanRoys AHR, MCGC, AAV, HTE 16.61
Others CEE 5.12
Cash - 1.06


Breakdown By Market Capitalization:



















Capitalization Stocks Percentage of Portfolio
Small Cap (under 1B) CKSW, IRBT, AAV, AHR, MCGC, CEE 22.68
Mid Cap (1B to 10B) PTI, LDK, ITRI, PCL, HTE 37.30
Large Cap (upwards of 10B) IBN, PFE, TSM, STP, KFT, MO 38.95
Cash - 1.06


The portfolio is globally diversified though Latin America, Africa, Middle East, and the Australian sub-continent areas are not well represented. Also, some major industry specific components such as Insurance, Basic Materials, and Utilities are missing from the portfolio. We will aim for more global and industry specific diversification in 2008.

Related Readings:
  1. Summary of Our Stock Transactions for 2007.
  2. 2007 Stock Portfolio Performance Summary.

5 Comments::

Coolguyboston said...

Very impressive. I noticed that you cleaned up Asure Software from your portfolio, and I also read your analysis on Asure posted on seekingalpha. It is true that Asure dropped dramatically last year end (with a few major sells), but it seems that dump was triggered by tax concerns. Would love to see your comments on this stock going forward.

Again, fantastic job.

ks said...

Thank you for your kind remarks.

Yes, we sold Asure immediately after their earnings announcement. As commented in our SeekingAlpha posting, the conference call said they have cash of $19.5M which was somewhat low. Also, the headcount at 189 which converts to $64/employee on a forward basis (12M projected revenue) was a surprise. As far as growth, management projected revenue in 5-6 years to be at $100M - there is no real basis for such a projection and so the value of that projection is questionable. The valuation is cheap if they can realize growth anywhere near that projection.

Coolguyboston said...

Appreciate your comments.

For the low cash level, do you think that could be mainly influenced by the iEmployee deal?

I am a bit more concerned about its IP revenue, which used to count a big deal but now gone, and wondering how Snyder could narrow the gap. I agree the revenue of ~12M is a more reasonable number to look at as for now.

One major uncertainty in the near future I guess is the delisting risk. The stock price has been under $1 for ~20days since last big drop... what solutions you think Asure's executives would come up with? They did quite a good job rescuing the company from delisting in the last two crises. I guess you have been following this company for quite a while, what did they do in the past?

If the company could manage to raise the price to above $1, there will be a ~50% gain opportunity at least.

ks said...

We think the low cash level was a surprise because the 3rd quarter conference call gave the impression that they will not have any more IP litigation related revenue or expenses. But, they reported some related expenses in the 4th quarter.

Reverse-stock split is one way for management to influence stock price directly. Other ways such as insiders buying shares (which they have been doing), stock buy back, etc. can influence stock price indirectly, but it is not guaranteed.

Finally, it is important to realize that it is a micro-cap and so as an investment, it is speculative by nature. In a diversified stock portfolio, it should form a very small portion of one's overall portfolio.

Best Regards,
One Family's Blog.

Coolguyboston said...

Reverse stock split could hardly be good...

I like what the insiders have been doing (purchasing stocks), but these may be far from enough to meaningfully lift the price. I would rather bet on the post merger growth of iEmployee. Net Simplicity and iEmployee are focusing on a largely common small/mid size market, and there could be lots of cross selling opportunities.

You are right, Asure is a risky one, thats why I just make it as 5% of the portfolio. But given its substantial growth potential, I think it should worth this 5% confidence.:-)

Will be closely following this stock and see how it goes, and maybe add or decrease the position in the coming weeks. I am expecting to see something big happen in the next 1-2 months.

Thanks a lot for your comments and great blogging. Keep it up my friend!

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